CPA vs revenue share vs hybrid: compare the same cohort

Normalize the offer before comparing rates

Start with one row per offer and hold the audience, acquisition month, country, product and reporting currency constant. If one offer counts registrations and another counts approved first-time depositors, the rows are not comparable. Record the actual payable event and who can approve or reverse it. A verbal description of a qualified customer is insufficient for a forecast that determines a creator guarantee.

bet365's published terms recognize CPA, revenue share and combinations agreed in writing. That establishes possible structures, not a recommended price. Our editorial approach is to compare each proposed structure using the same assumptions and show every term that prevents a straightforward comparison as an unresolved commercial question.

References: bet365 Partners — Terms and Conditions

Build the cohort and revenue base

Use approved acquisitions rather than raw deposit events as the CPA input. For revenue share, use the agreement's commissionable revenue after its defined deductions. Do not substitute total deposits, turnover or a different operator's NGR definition. Choose a horizon long enough to expose the tradeoff you are negotiating, and label future months as forecasts.

Keep acquisition volume separate from later cohort activity. A cohort of forty approved customers remains that acquisition cohort when only some are active in a later month. If the forecast uses revenue per acquired customer, keep that denominator throughout. Mixing revenue per active customer with the original acquisition count quietly inflates the expected revenue-share payment.

Calculate a synthetic break-even point

Synthetic example: forty approved acquisitions generate €12,000 of cumulative commissionable NGR over the chosen horizon. Offer A pays €120 CPA, offer B pays 35% revenue share, and offer C pays €60 CPA plus 20% revenue share. The resulting commissions are €4,800, €4,200 and €4,800. These invented terms illustrate arithmetic and are not market benchmarks or available offers.

The CPA and pure revenue-share offers meet at approximately €13,714.29 of eligible NGR because €4,800 divided by 0.35 gives that value. Hybrid equals pure CPA at €12,000 in this example. These thresholds assume no carryover, cap, reversal or tier change. Recalculate when any of those conditions applies; a simple calculator cannot interpret a contract.

Compare payment dates as well as totals

Build a second view showing when commission becomes approved, invoiceable and received. A higher total payable after several months may be unsuitable for a manager funding production immediately. Conversely, early CPA approval does not mean irreversible cash if the agreement permits later adjustments. Keep expected payment and actual receipt in separate columns.

GO AFFILIATES publishes a negative-carryover provision, illustrating why the sequence of revenue can matter. Test a weak opening month followed by recovery, as well as the smooth base case. Our recommendation is to reserve enough working capital for contractual payment timing and your own commitments, rather than assuming a revenue-share forecast will fund a fixed creator fee on schedule.

References: GO AFFILIATES — Terms and Conditions

Stress the assumptions that can reverse the decision

Run three commercially plausible scenarios using your own evidence: lower qualification, delayed receipts and lower eligible revenue. Change one assumption at a time first, then combine adverse assumptions. This separates a fragile forecast from an arithmetic error. If small movements repeatedly change the preferred offer, negotiate flexibility rather than presenting one option as clearly superior.

For an operator, commission is a cost; for an affiliate, it is income. State which perspective the comparison serves. A creator guarantee, production invoice and agency fee belong in the relevant party's cost model, but should not be silently netted from contractual NGR. Decide who bears each expense and whether it has already been counted elsewhere.

Turn the comparison into a written decision

Attach the chosen model to a term sheet containing qualification rules, revenue deductions, cap treatment, carryover, reporting access, payment currency and a review date. Preserve the forecast version used for approval. A later result should be assessed against the assumptions actually approved, rather than a revised spreadsheet that makes the original decision look better.

Confirm market and channel eligibility before pricing delivery. A profitable model cannot authorize a restricted promotion. Use the worksheet to assign unresolved inputs to finance, commercial and compliance owners. The completed decision should explain the preferred offer, the main downside, the cash reserve required and the condition that would trigger renegotiation. This is commercial planning guidance, not a promise of campaign returns.

Working template

Download the CSV worksheet

Frequently asked questions

Sources and scope

Sources checked September 22, 2026. Numerical examples are illustrative unless explicitly identified otherwise.

• bet365 Partners — Terms and Conditions — Program-specific commission structure and payment terms; not universal affiliate rules. Checked September 22, 2026.
• GO AFFILIATES — Terms and Conditions — Social-casino program-specific commission models, carryover and dispute procedure. Checked September 22, 2026.

Related reading

• Broader revenue-share arrangements for streamers
• Define the qualified FTD input
• NGR deductions: build an auditable commission waterfall
• Negative carryover: model the recovery before renewing